Japan Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy not undermining bank lending Recent comments by Prime Minister Abe suggest that he is no longer obsessed with overcoming deflation and would like the Bank of Japan to focus more on the financial stability part of its mandate... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Divided MPC narrowly holds rates Today’s split MPC decision in South Africa shows significant minority support for tighter policy. But if the hawks couldn’t swing today’s vote, it’s unlikely that they will succeed in pushing for a... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening to end sooner than most expect The Norges Bank has announced its first interest rate hike in seven years, but we suspect that the tightening process will be over much sooner than policymakers or investors envisage. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB dovish amid concerns about franc strength The Swiss National Bank stuck firmly to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and sounded more downbeat about the outlook, revising down its medium-term inflation forecasts in light of the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What to expect from three more years of Abenomics? Mr Abe will remain Prime Minister for another three years. That means fiscal policy will probably be tightened further, monetary policy will remain loose and policymakers may take some further steps... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may not rise until late 2021 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 27th September and will probably acknowledge that GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than it... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch More rate hikes on the way The continued strength of economic growth in the third quarter together with signs that wage growth and underlying inflation are accelerating will maintain pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Mounting risks suggest BoJ on hold for longer The Bank of Japan today reiterated its pledge to keep rates low for a prolonged period. With the sales tax hike looming and inflation set to remain below target for longer, we think that the Bank will... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
