Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s upbeat tone contrasts with downbeat data We doubt that the gap between the Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively upbeat tone and the downbeat feel of the recent economic news will be sustained for long. We suspect the RBA may become a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will the BCB shift to tightening? The timing of the Brazilian central bank’s first interest rate hike is likely to be determined by politics as much as economics. There’s a lot of uncertainty related to the outcome of the Presidential... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s central bank signals higher rates on the cards Although the Central Bank of Iceland left monetary policy unchanged today, it reiterated that it was prepared to take action if inflation expectations rise further. We think that this is likely and... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation to 24.5% y/y in September increases the chances of another interest rate hike at this month’s MPC meeting. But given the scale of last month’s rate... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy unlikely to live up to RBA’s expectations The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded a bit more confident in its economic outlook when it decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.5% for the 26th month today. But we still think that GDP... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for 2018 hikes in Sweden and Iceland building There are still no signs that domestic political uncertainty is weighing on the Swedish economy, so we continue to expect the Riksbank to raise rates in December. Meanwhile, rising inflation... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Carmakers get a reprieve, the BoJ’s case for easing Japan’s government this week caved to US pressure to start discussions on a bilateral trade deal. But it appears to have won some valuable concessions in return. Meanwhile, we learnt more about what... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation on the rise EM inflation increased to its highest level in more than a year and a half in August, and we think that this has further to run over the coming months. One consequence is that the monetary policy in... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia and Philippines hike rates, who’s next? The Philippines and Indonesia hiked interest rates on Thursday, and it is only likely to be a matter of time before other central banks in the region follow them. Pakistan’s central bank is likely to... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
