ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s decline in euro-zone inflation to a five-month low does not change our view that the ECB will alter its forward guidance next week. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will energy inflation peak? We expect energy inflation to peak next quarter and then drop back, providing another challenge to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reach a 2% inflation target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy” OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of QE (finally) in sight? The US Fed is likely to raise interest rates in June and to begin a very gradual process of balance sheet normalisation before the end of the year. But other major central banks are a long way behind... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength Given the improvement in the euro-zone’s political and economic outlook and the relative stance of monetary policy, we no longer expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. But the franc... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Introducing our Taylor Rules for Central and Eastern Europe The combination of strong growth and rising inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has shifted attention to when and how policymakers might respond. To help answer this, we’ve created Taylor... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea to keep rates unchanged for some time yet The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates on hold today and the governor’s accompanying press conference makes clear the central bank is in little hurry to adjust rates anytime soon. We continue to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory crackdown poses risks to growth, financial stability The ongoing regulatory crackdown on banks’ off-balance-sheet activities has contributed to the mild slowdown in growth we’ve seen recently. But it is also bringing into focus the challenges that China... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed plans to begin balance sheet normalisation with baby steps The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Fed intends to gradually phase out the reinvestment of maturing securities in its portfolio. The upshot is that the balance sheet will shrink more... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision today to keep its policy interest rate at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the outlook for rates shows that, despite strong economic growth and employment gains... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
