Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, but further hikes can’t be ruled out Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests the central bank’s tightening cycle may be nearing an end. We are changing our forecast... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Subdued inflation means interest rates in Taiwan will remain low With the economy experiencing a steady recovery and inflationary pressures still very subdued, it was no surprise that Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in sight for Philippines rates Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% was widely expected. But while the consensus among analysts is that the BSP will hike rates... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack RBI wields new powers The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has started to put to use its new powers to clean up the banking sector. Earlier this month it instructed several commercial banks to begin insolvency proceedings... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ won’t raise rates next year as markets expect The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and repeat its comment that they will stay there for a “considerable period” should prompt the financial markets to... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to remain loose despite further tightening by the Fed Even though the US Fed will start to reduce its asset holdings, probably in Q4, global monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a while yet. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending in... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC signals loose policy to stay The Hungarian MPC’s extremely dovish post-meeting press statement provided further evidence that policymakers are as yet untroubled by growing signs of capacity constraints. Monetary policy is set to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is monetary policy really so accommodative? It is often assumed that monetary policy is highly accommodative simply because nominal interest rates are very low. But if the neutral real interest rate has fallen, monetary policy may not be as... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks The surprise outcome of the General Election and the MPC’s unexpectedly tight vote on interest rates have triggered only a muted market reaction. Admittedly, trade-weighted sterling fell to its lowest... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hike is far from a done deal The Bank of Canada mentioned this week that the economy is gathering momentum and indicated that it is considering hiking interest rates soon, prompting financial markets to quickly raise bets on a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
