Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: rates cuts not far off Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today but, in contrast to the consensus, we think that rate cuts will come onto the agenda soon. 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Chance of another interest rate hike in May growing The increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates that occurred in the build-up to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) February Inflation Report proved justified. The MPC revised... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are regional banks’ capital ratios falling? If the Bank of Japan were to reverse course on monetary loosening in the near future, it would more likely be a response to worries about financial stability than high inflation. The recent... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No surprises from cautious Riksbank Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to adjust policy The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today was no surprise given the backdrop of an improving economy but very weak price pressures. There was nothing in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Bank lending has continued to slow and Japanese banks are no longer gaining market share in the cross-border lending market. However, one reason is that non-financial firms are increasingly turning to... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The slight easing of consumer price inflation in January was due to a decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remained elevated and is set to rise further. We remain comfortable with our... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose under new BoJ leadership Governor Kuroda looks likely to be reappointed as Bank of Japan Governor when his current term ends in April. It is still unclear who his two deputies will be, but the main candidates are mostly in... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities continue to diminish The volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has brought concerns about EM external vulnerabilities back into the spotlight. However, with the notable exception of Argentina, economies... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
