UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Burden of negative rates won’t prevent further easing Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update General hawkish message from the MPC Even after the announcement of the six-month Brexit delay, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from its current rate of 0.75% with the possibility of a no deal Brexit... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Indonesia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Indonesia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed downplays drop off in core inflation Although the FOMC left the target for the fed funds rate unchanged at between 2.25% and 2.50% today, as expected, it unveiled a slightly unexpected 5bp cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER)... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slump in inflation to prompt cut to 1.25% We suspect that the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to 1.25% on Tuesday 7th May. And given... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
