Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Will manufacturing continue to outperform? The manufacturing industry in the Philippines has been a key driver of economic growth in recent years. Although the sector should continue to grow strongly in the near term, the medium-term outlook... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru leaves rates on hold, but one more cut still likely Peru’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% yesterday as expected, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing. We think that a further drop in inflation in the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints that rates won’t rise this year The Reserve Bank of Australia used today’s Statement of Monetary Policy to hint for the third time this week that interest rates are unlikely to rise this year. We’ve been saying exactly that since... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC paves the way for a May rate hike The “Super Thursday” releases from the Bank of England support our long-held view that the Monetary Policy Committee would become less dovish as the economy beat expectations. Indeed, we expect the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No changes to Philippines policy rate in 2018 Despite January’s jump in inflation, the Philippines central bank (BSP) left rates on hold at its first meeting of the year. While most analysts think that BSP will be forced to tighten policy this... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to test the water soon with change of language With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ prepares for new employment focus It was no surprise that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate at 1.75% today and again projected that rates won’t rise until the second half of next year at the earliest. More interesting... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves data suggest that the People’s Bank has not been directly intervening to limit the renminbi’s recent gains against the dollar. That partly reflects the fact that the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Consensus underestimating scope for Icelandic rate rises As the recent rise in inflation has been due to temporary exchange rate effects, it was little surprise that the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today. But with further rises in... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI turns more hawkish The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise but it sounded notably more hawkish in the policy statement. This supports our non-consensus view that rate hikes are likely... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise The usual pattern around Chinese New Year is for inflation to rise sharply either in January or February and fall in the other month. This year, we think inflation will have picked up in both. And... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
