Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Q2 rebound, edging closer to a rate hike, a soft Brexit? An encouraging set of Markit/CIPS surveys provided further evidence that the economy has rebounded in Q2. Meanwhile, in a speech this week, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, appeared to reinforce... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EC to punish Poland, Turkish inflation surges The infringement procedure launched this week by the European Commission against Poland – in response to controversial legal reforms and the associated worries about the erosion of judicial... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Harada’s battlefields, firms optimistic on investment BoJ Board member Harada this week refuted criticism that the Bank’s prolonged monetary easing poses a major threat to financial stability. We share his view that those concerns are overdone, which is... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rebounds as growth elsewhere slumps Recently-released figures have supported our view that Kenya’s economy will strengthen this year. Conditions elsewhere, however, seem to have deteriorated. And we think that next week’s data will... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia: China investment freeze to weigh on growth The Malaysian government’s decision earlier this week to suspend work on the US$20bn East Coast Railway Link points to a bleak future for Chinese investment in the country. Halting work on these... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rebounds despite “trade war” fears With the US and China poised to impose tariffs on each other in the coming days trade tensions look set to ratchet up further. But the world economy is still doing well. We estimate that global... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The monetary data reveal a sharp slowdown in M1 growth in May, to its weakest pace since early 2016. But this isn’t a serious concern. Our measure of M3 broad money continued to expand at a decent... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks move into tightening mode The recent spate of rate hikes in the emerging world probably marks the start of a sustained tightening cycle over the next 18 months – the first such cycle since 2011. This has more to do with... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have stayed well above target in June, due in large part to core inflation remaining elevated by the standards of the recent past. We think that this... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set to raise rates despite growing risks Despite a host of negative developments since the Bank of Canada signalled in May that an interest rate rise was imminent, policymakers still seem eager to raise rates. While we now expect the Bank to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian central bank tightening policy via the backdoor Although the National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged today, the Bank is using open market operations to tighten monetary conditions. We think that policymakers will return to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: should we worry about rising public FX debt? The sharp rise in the Egyptian government’s foreign currency debt over the past few years is not yet a major cause for concern – the risk of a destabilising fall in the pound appears to be low and the... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
