US Economics Update Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably) The household saving rate fell to a 12-year low of 2.4% of disposable income in December and, based on the recent surge in the values of equities and real estate, it could fall all the way to zero. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the sterling rally continue? There are some reasons to think that the pound’s recent rally may struggle to go much further. Rising US interest rates could prompt something of a recovery in the ailing dollar, while Brexit... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the party last without the punchbowl? The party in the markets has remained in full swing while the Fed has emptied its punchbowl slowly. This year, though, the US central bank is likely to drain it more quickly. And in some other major... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Patient ECB to move more slowly than markets think The ECB did not alter its forward guidance today, stressing that it will exercise patience and persistence when normalising policy and voicing concern about the strong euro. The currency’s further... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilises at the end of 2017 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised at the end of last year after a fairly sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Growth may pick up slightly in the near term... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Housing risks to deter Norges Bank from raising rates While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. (Dec.) The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) For all the talk about how the incoming Governor will deal with employment being added to the RBNZ’s mandate, the latest data suggest he may spend most of his time wondering why inflation is so low. 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for March rate hike Janet Yellen’s final FOMC meeting will pass with little fanfare, but the language of the accompanying policy statement looks set to strike a more hawkish tone. That would leave the Fed on course to... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation peaks December’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, suggesting that the sector grew by 0.4% in Q4 as a whole, half of Q3’s 0.8% rate. What’s more, growth in non-retail spending is likely to... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
