Global Central Bank Watch Taking stock of central bank lending facilities Traditionally, when central banks respond to economic downturns, slashing policy interest rates makes for the headline act. This time, with rates already near zero at the onset of the crisis, rate... 7th May 2020 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a conservative tone The Czech central bank delivered a larger-than-expected interest rate cut at today’s MPC meeting but also disappointed those that had expected some unconventional measures to be announced to support... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Credit won’t hold back the recovery, more to come from BoE There can be little doubt about how bad the recession will be now that the Bank of England has joined us and the OBR in forecasting that GDP will fall by 25-30%. But even so UK banks should be able to... 7th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Courts try to stall the ECB as gov’ts ease off the brakes This week’s ruling from the German constitutional court won’t stop the ECB from ramping up its asset purchases this year, but it may be a sign of much bigger problems further down the line. Meanwhile... 7th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank sets a floor at zero This morning’s 25bp rate cut by the Norges Bank, to a fresh record low of zero, took the consensus by surprise, but was in line with our forecast. That said, the Bank gave a strong signal that it has... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The next expansion in QE may not be the last While the Monetary Policy Committee left its interest rate and quantitative easing policies unchanged this morning, it implied that an expansion of QE is imminent. This leaves our existing call that... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom set to cut further, Chile’s CB stays the course The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp cut in the Selic rate last night and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement has prompted us to pencil in a further 50bp of cuts (to 2.50%) in the coming months... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Negative rates on the horizon The RBNZ will want to wait to assess the impact of the virus outbreak on inflation and the labour market before cutting rates further. As such, we think it will not announce any further stimulus... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Continued easing, but policy support remains essential Conditions in money markets have continued to ease gradually as central banks have expanded their backstop measures. In our view, extensive support from policymakers will remain a key factor... 6th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling highlights future risks to the euro The German constitutional court ruling today will not bring the ECB’s asset purchase programme to a sudden end. But it highlights that a successful legal challenge to the its policies in the future... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Malaysia Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 2.50% to 2.00%, and with the outlook for growth very poor, we think the central bank will ease policy again in the coming months. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Interest rates to remain close to 0% for years The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today left its interest rate targets unchanged but an easing of collateral requirements should provide some support to corporate bond markets. While the financial... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank welcomes its newest asset The government confirmed this week that former Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem will take the helm from Governor Stephen Poloz in June. We doubt the change will materially affect the way the Bank... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Bank of Canada Governor Announcement This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the Bank of Canada’s announcement on 1st May. The confirmation that Tiff Macklem will take over from Governor Stephen... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys at their limits; Norges Bank to cut to zero While the KOF Economic Barometer registered its largest monthly fall on record in April, like many other indicators elsewhere, it is struggling to capture the unprecedented scale of damage wreaked by... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
