Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Negative rates to come back on agenda before long Having pulled out all the stops since its last scheduled policy meeting, in February, we suspect that the Riksbank will take stock next week. However, as the focus shifts away from monetary... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Surveying the damage With the Fed having already slashed interest rates to zero and unveiled nine new lending programmes in recent weeks, officials will probably use next week’s FOMC meeting to take stock rather than to... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more The Turkish central bank responded to signs of a clear downturn in the economy by cutting interest rates by a further 100bp today but, with downward pressure on the lira continuing to mount, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will need to increase its bond purchases again The ECB’s record pace of asset purchases is proving insufficient to bring bond spreads down. We think that it will need to step up the pace of purchases further, as well as expand the overall size of... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Rate cut more likely than not The Bank of Japan will probably take some additional steps to support funding for corporates at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday. But with output plunging and deflation set to return, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Is the Fed monetising the deficit? The scale of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities in the first few weeks of the pandemic, in addition to the sheer size of the broader expansion in its balance sheet, arguably suggests that the... 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB might need a bigger bazooka The ECB is now buying assets at a record pace. But it is still struggling to keep a lid on bond yields, so there is a good chance that it has to step up its purchases even further. Meanwhile, new... 17th April 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up virus response, further loosening likely The RBI has taken further steps to help banks and borrowers weather the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Emergency rate cut unlikely to be the last The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut its policy rate by 50bp at an emergence meeting, and with economic activity in the country collapsing, we doubt this will be the last move from the... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank of France floats a version of helicopter money The Bank of France floated the idea recently that the ECB could use “helicopter money” to channel funds to companies after the worst of the current crisis has abated. While this idea has some... 15th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC ramps up easing but more still to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the ongoing economic weakness and is preparing to lower interest rates further in the coming months. 15th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia to resume easing cycle if rupiah holds up Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, but the cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and dovish comments in the press conference suggest that further rate cuts are... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Are the Bank’s helicopter blades starting to turn? We won’t know until the future whether or not the Bank of England has launched helicopter money as it depends if the rise in the money supply is temporary or permanent. But more important is whether... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
