Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut, door opens for more easing Turkey’s central bank stepped up its monetary support for the economy with a 50bp cut in interest rates today and recent announcements of financial support from Qatar and Japan probably tips the... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update QE will become part of Em Asian central bank toolkits With policy rates close to the zero bound in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, we think it is only a matter of time before central banks in these economies implement full-blown quantitative easing (QE)... 21st May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? With the economy in a massive slump and prices falling sharply, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut interest rates by a further 25bp to a new all-time low of 0.50% came as no... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update A temporary pause in rate declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But the dovish tone of the PBOC’s latest monetary policy report and growing pressure on the central bank to do more, including calls for... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.5% is a big surprise given the slump in economic activity and the rebound in the rupiah. We think it will cut interest rates... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rates again, further loosening to come In response to the rapidly worsening outlook for the economy, Pakistan’s central bank today slashed its key policy rate by a further 100bp to 8.0%. With the economy in freefall and the authorities... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Negative rates a possibility but not a priority Canadian banks and households are in some respects better placed to deal with the side-effects of negative interest rates that their peers elsewhere have faced. But in contrast to the banking sectors... 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE holds rates as it keeps a close eye on the pound The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged today was not a major surprise given that efforts to prop up the pound have taken precedence over supporting the economy. If the... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England unlikely to take rates negative We think it is far more likely that the Bank of England will use further rounds of Quantitative Easing to boost demand rather than cut interest rates into negative territory as the market is... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Overall policy response close in size to the US The federal government’s spending measures are dwarfed by those in the US, and the Bank of Canada’s plans look underwhelming compared to those of the Federal Reserve. But the overall fiscal packages... 13th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) massively expanded its annual target for asset purchases at its meeting today and we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory before long. 13th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam cuts interest rates again, further easing is likely Vietnam’s central bank (SBV) today cut its main policy rate by 50bp to 4.5%, and further rate cuts are likely given the poor economic outlook. Although life in the country appears to be slowly... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Negative rates still a long shot in the US The Fed has developed a habit of caving in the face of market pressure in recent years, but we still think the chances of it pushing the fed funds rate into negative territory are low. Fed officials... 11th May 2020 · 5 mins read
