Europe Economics Weekly Signs of life after lockdown This week we got some evidence that euro-zone economies are coming back to life after the lockdowns, led by stronger household spending. But they remain far from fighting fit. And next week, several... 19th June 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary easing cycle nearing an end With fiscal stimulus ramping up and economic recovery well underway, the PBOC appears to see less of a need to encourage stronger private borrowing. Broad credit growth still looks set to accelerate... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Returns from gilts likely to be paltry even if policy remains loose Gilt yields have risen slightly today, but we doubt that they will climb much further, given we expect the Bank of England to keep policy ultra-loose for many years. However, since we also doubt the... 18th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Peru? Peru’s economy appears to be suffering one of the largest economic hits of any country from the coronavirus, which is likely to spur further policy easing. With short-term interest rates essentially... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will do more QE, eventually We think today’s Monetary Policy Committee decision to keep rates on hold at +0.10% and increase Quantitative Easing (QE) by £100bn is unlikely to be the last act of policy loosening. And while we... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Strong TLTRO demand a good sign for bank lending Data published today show huge demand for the ECB’s targeted lending to commercial banks. So far, these operations and government loan guarantees have been successful in raising bank lending to the... 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to ease further Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates today for the first time in three months, but the modest 25bp cut suggests that it remains worried about the outlook for the rupiah. Given the bleak growth... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank to maintain the status quo This morning’s decisions by the SNB and the Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold at -0.75% and zero respectively were never really in doubt. Both banks are set to leave policy unchanged... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom tempers hopes for further large rate cuts The statement from yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting poured cold water on expectations in the market that the Selic rate would be cut further from its current level of 2.25% to as low as 1.00... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Holding off on negative rates until 2021 The RBNZ has started to reduce the pace of asset purchases as economic activity has recovered. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 24th June. However, we... 18th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile central bank delves into unconventional toolbox The decision by Chile’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% was accompanied by a statement which appeared to unveil a QE programme. The finer details will be fleshed out... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed’s policy actions bode well for risky assets Even if the Fed’s latest decision to tweak its buying of corporate bonds in the secondary market is hard to justify, given the improvement in market conditions over the past few months, it reinforces... 16th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ unlikely to expand lending facilities any further The Bank of Japan today expanded its lending facilities further. The total amount of support for corporate funding is now equivalent to nearly 20% of the debt of non-financial firms and we don’t... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hold rates at near-zero for years There is still huge uncertainty over how quickly activity will recover from the pandemic, but it’s clear that the economy is set for an unprecedented period of near-zero interest rates. 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Finding the floor for rates in Latin America Our Taylor Rules suggest that monetary easing cycles have further to run in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and we have pencilled in additional interest rate cuts in all three countries. Moreover... 11th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Brace yourself for two boring policy meetings The Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank are all but certain to leave their policy settings unchanged at the scheduled announcements next Thursday (18th June) and for the foreseeable future. 11th June 2020 · 6 mins read
