Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Bank lending to firms jumped again in April, suggesting that government loan guarantees and cheap ECB funding for banks are having the desired effects. But the central bank’s work is far from done. We... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
ECB Watch Another half trillion of bond purchases Policymakers have signalled their intention to further expand the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme at the monetary policy meeting next Thursday. At a minimum, we think they will add a further... 28th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update EC fiscal proposal provides the SNB some respite The prospect of a joint European fiscal response has helped to ease upward pressure on the Swiss franc and means that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the SNB following its recent bout of... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK stops short of full QE, more action still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate by 25bps to a new record low of 0.50% and gave some vague assurances that it would act to keep long term government bond yields down. With growth likely to... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank likely to expand corporate bond purchases We expect the Bank of Canada to announce additional corporate bond purchases next week. If it wanted to do even more, the Bank would probably introduce a funding for lending program rather than take... 27th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Hours worked plunge to 25-year low The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not... 26th May 2020 · 9 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to launch quantitative easing in earnest We suspect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 2nd June. But with the Bank’s employment and price stability goals moving out of reach, we expect... 26th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB preparing the ground for more bond purchases The account of April’s ECB meeting, and some recent comments from senior members of the Governing Council, suggest that the ECB is gearing up to increase its bond purchases. Next week, the European... 22nd May 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to launch QE, labour market woes in Taiwan The Bank of Korea is likely to cut its policy rate to a record low of 0.5% and step up non-conventional support at its meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, today’s labour market figures from Taiwan show... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ramps up virus response, more easing in store The RBI has further stepped up its response to the collapse in economic activity from the coronavirus and containment measures in another emergency announcement today. The central bank has also left... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC delivers on policy stimulus We had anticipated that the National People’s Congress (NPC) would lay out plans for a further ramp up in policy support and it did not disappoint. The annual budget points to fiscal stimulus this... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Massive support from BoJ should contain bankruptcies The Bank of Japan launched a new lending facility today to support bank lending to small businesses and we suspect its measures will now be sufficient to secure the financing needs of firms throughout... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Headline inflation turned negative in April for the first time since 2016 adjusting for the impact of October’s sales tax hike. We expect it to weaken further over the coming months as services and... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
