Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2022)

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Timing and nature of “pivots” will vary

The dovish tilt among central banks has led to more talk of “pivots”, but this will mean different things for different banks. The ECB may be shifting to a slower pace of tightening, but the peak in...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

China Chart Pack

Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging

On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are...

1st November 2022 · 11 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA to lift rates more sharply than most expect

The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by 25bp today and the upward revision to its inflation forecasts are consistent with our view that rates will peak at an above-consensus 3.85%. However, we...

1st November 2022 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Nov. 22)

1st November 2022 · 2 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Policymakers increase currency support

Central banks across the region have been stepping up the pace of intervention in foreign exchange markets to support their currencies, resulting in a drop in FX reserves. In most countries, reserves...

31st October 2022 · 15 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Here comes the slowdown

The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2...

31st October 2022 · 11 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Recession a line in the sand for the Bank

The Bank of Canada now judges that there is a 50/50 chance of GDP growth turning negative, which caused it to slow the pace of its tightening to a 50 bp hike this week and to hint that it will drop to...

28th October 2022 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot

The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic...

28th October 2022 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns

Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those...

28th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB still a long way from a pivot

This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be...

28th October 2022 · 9 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Three key calls, Vietnam playing catch up

We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook earlier this week, containing new forecasts for GDP, inflation and monetary policy. In this Weekly, we outline three key non-consensus calls from...

28th October 2022 · 7 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Slower growth, strong labour markets

Data published this week showed that Sweden's economy performed better than expected in Q3, but the timelier surveys point to a contraction in Q4. Next week, the Norges Bank's rate decision will be a...

28th October 2022 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22)

28th October 2022 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Don’t expect fireworks at “additional” MPC meeting

Unlike previous "emergency" meetings in response to big financial market moves or inflation shocks, the "additional" MPC meeting announced for next week is a bureaucratic decision since the RBI is...

28th October 2022 · 5 mins read