US Economics Weekly Fed’s dovish turn is still coming, eventually This week’s FOMC meeting may have dashed hopes that the Fed will follow the recent dovish tilts of some other central banks. But we still think Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Sifting through a week of ECB comments The raft of comments by ECB policymakers this week suggests that further rate hikes are on the horizon, but that the pace of tightening will slow soon. And with officials stressing how difficult it is... 4th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s dovish tilt It may seem odd that we are still forecasting interest rates to rise from 3.00% to 5.00% when the Bank of England said this week that it expects rates to peak between 3.00% and 4.00%. But what happens... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will continue to tighten well into 2023 The RBA didn’t respond to the upside surprise in Q3 inflation with a renewed 50bp hike this week as some had anticipated. But by revising up its inflation forecasts and sounding increasingly concerned... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t buy the BoE’s dovish tilt We’re inclined to agree with investors’ decision to shrug off the Bank of England’s dovish tilt and the suggestion that market pricing is wide of the mark earlier. We still expect Bank Rate to rise to... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Joining the 75bps club, but strong signal rates won’t rise to 5.25% Although the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates today by 75 basis points, from 2.25% to a 14-year high of 3.00%, it sent the strongest signal yet that it thinks rates won’t need to rise... 3rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI tightening will continue on schedule The RBI’s out-of-cycle meeting today concluded with no decision on interest rates. That’s no surprise – it was called for administrative reasons, rather than as a response to changing economic... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Nov.) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s external vulnerabilities in the spotlight The surge in energy prices this year has led to a sharp widening in Hungary’s current account deficit and increased its dependence on foreign capital inflows. While the central bank seems to have put... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening cycle nearly over Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to slow the pace of rate hikes is the beginning of the end for its tightening cycle. But we don’t expect a pivot towards interest rate cuts next year. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The decline in both core and headline inflation in October supports our view that Switzerland has passed peak inflation. We expect further falls in the coming months which will allow the SNB to raise... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia closing in on the finish line Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) raised its main policy rate by 25bp (to 2.75%) today, but with inflation falling and growth set to slow, we think the tightening cycle is nearing an end. 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
