Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will stick to 25bp hike One reason why investors were caught off guard by the further acceleration in trimmed mean CPI last quarter was that the ABS' Monthly CPI Indicator hasn't been as reliable as we'd like it to be. That... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Window for policy tightening is closing rapidly The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between incomes and wages. 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
BoE Watch BoE to deliver a more “forceful” interest rate hike The further strengthening in domestic inflationary pressures and exceptional tightness in the labour market suggests there is a strong case for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to opt for an... 27th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Risks skewed towards another 50bp hike The Norges Bank signalled in September that it intended to slow the pace of tightening, implying that it would hike by 25bp at the meeting next week. But with inflation data since then again coming in... 27th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 27th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt shifts to flexible exchange rate, hikes interest rates Egypt’s central bank has just announced that it is shifting to a more flexible exchange rate regime, which we think will result in the pound falling 18% to 24/$ by end-2023 if not sooner. The move... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Beginning of the end for Bank’s tightening cycle Governor Tiff Macklem shifted his tone notably today, reassuring that the Bank was “trying to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening”, whereas previously the emphasis had stressed that it was... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
US Fed Watch Pace of tightening likely to slow soon Fed officials are gearing up for another 75bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. But that ultra-aggressive pace of tightening won’t continue indefinitely and, while he will be keen to avoid... 26th October 2022 · 8 mins read
