Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates to remain on hold until Q4 The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced it kept interest rates on hold on Thursday evening and, with inflationary pressures building, the CBE is likely to refrain from cutting rates in the near term... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank to broaden its gaze to encompass climate change While the Bank of Japan kept its major policy settings unchanged today and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, it extended the deadline for applications to its emergency lending... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics No tightening until 2024, and then by unwinding QE first Even though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will probably acknowledge in the policy announcement on Thursday 24th June that activity and inflation have been stronger than it expected, we don’t... 17th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT still treading cautiously The statement accompanying today’s decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its policy rate at 19.00% suggests that policymakers are (for now) standing up to political pressure to lower... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: no rush to hike rates despite booming economy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.125% despite the booming economy. With inflation relatively subdued and the currency at multi-year highs against the US dollar, we... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank confirms September rate lift-off While the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning, it all but confirmed that it will raise rates in September – which would be well ahead of the RBNZ... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Policy tightening by SNB remains a distant prospect While the Norges Bank will start hiking in Q3, and we now expect the Fed to raise rates twice in 2023, developments in Frankfurt will continue to set the tone at the Swiss National Bank. Having left... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom’s inflation worries growing The hawkish statement from the Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was raised by 75bp to 4.25%) indicates that policymakers are more confident in the economic recovery but also... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: policy to remain on hold for some time Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect rates to remain low to support... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices to fall in 2022 We expect the RBNZ to impose new lending restrictions in the months ahead which, in addition to rising interest rates, should result in house prices declining next year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields and US stock market rotation We don’t expect the unwinding of the rotation trade in the US stock market over the past month or so, which has coincided with a pull-back in long-dated Treasury yields, to continue. 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the Norges Bank’s looming hikes into context A rate hike by the Norges Bank in September would make it the first G10 central bank to start to raise interest rates after the pandemic, by a comfortable margin. As a result, the NOK is likely to... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the... 14th June 2021 · 11 mins read
