US Chart Pack Crisis easing, but economic damage yet to be felt Recent data suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was mostly sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter, payroll employment growth robust and... 22nd March 2023 · 10 mins read
India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Global turmoil hits Lat Am when it’s already down Strains in the global banking sector have flared up at a time when Latin America was in the midst of a period of economic weakness. Regional GDP fell in the final quarter of last year and surveys for... 22nd March 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 7.0% y/y, in February may be a sign that the intensification of loadshedding in recent months is fuelling price pressures. So long as renewed... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The reacceleration in CPI inflation in February may be enough to tilt the Bank of England towards raising interest rates from 4.00% to 4.25% tomorrow despite the recent turmoil in the global banking... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Near-term softness, long-term optimism The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early... 20th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tightening cycles nearing their end Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth... 20th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Banking turmoil not (yet) enough to stop Fed hike Although the banking crisis appears to be far from over and new problems could yet emerge over the coming days, we still expect the Fed to push ahead with a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
