UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb.) The tepid rise in retail sales in February all but locks in a contraction in sales volumes in Q1. We think that a stronger rise in services spending will help keep private consumption buoyant this... 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolivia’s FX crunch, Argentina’s debt shenanigans Bolivia's balance of payments strains intensified this week and, while a sovereign default doesn't appear to be imminent, the country's current policy setting looks unsustainable. Meanwhile, a decree... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Keep calm and carry on hiking The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse may tighten lending conditions slightly due to reduced competition and potentially tighter regulation. But we don’t think there will be a significant impact on... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China... 24th March 2023 · 35 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
