Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turmoil in Turkey, MNB delivers, COVID divergence It's been a turbulent week for Turkey, with the lira falling by around 11% against the dollar and we've looked extensively at the key implications for the economy and financial system. We'll be... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly African central banks and the EM rate hike club This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics What if we’re wrong on inflation? This week’s data releases have made us more confident that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in December. But our forecast that inflation will fall back sharply in 2022 underpins our view... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: further rate hikes coming Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today raised interest rates by an aggressive 150bp and with inflation set to remain above target and the currency likely to come under further downward pressure, further... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth and inflation to continue to strengthen RBA Governor Phillip Lowe doubled down on the view wage growth will remain too low to justify a rate hike anytime soon. But wages for workers on individual agreements is soaring. And we think wage... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch An opportunity to dial down the dovishness a touch The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its policy settings on hold next week. But against a backdrop of above-target inflation and the broader hawkish shift by policymakers elsewhere, we expect it... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: lift-off for rates, but tightening cycle to be slow The South African Reserve Bank fired the starting gun on monetary policy normalisation with a 25bp hike in the repo rate, to 3.75%, today amidst growing concerns about inflation risks. But the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies investors with rate cut, crisis risks mount The sharp falls in the lira over the past few days clearly weren’t enough for Turkey’s central bank to stand up to President Erdogan as it pushed ahead with a 100bp cut (to 15.00%) to its one-week... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia is in no rush to tighten Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and appeared to signal that policy rates would remain unchanged for some time yet. A large output gap and weak inflation mean the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: rates will stay low to support recovery The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble There has been no let up for the Turkish lira today and all eyes are turning to the central bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Policymakers’ increased tolerance to falls in the lira as well as... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
