Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) Mexico’s headline inflation rated edged down to 7.6% y/y in February but the further pick-up in services inflation will continue to worry policymakers at Banxico. We think that the tightening cycle... 9th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will Asia respond to a more hawkish Fed? For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Fed, that determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. Given the poor outlook for economic growth in... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to 31.9% y/y in February, leaving it just shy of an all-time high and reinforcing our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will need to resume its... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%) and with the economy likely to remain weak and inflation set to fall back further over the coming months, we expect rates... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: strong wage growth to curb fall in inflation Headline inflation in Mexico will continue to fall back over next couple of years, but strong wage growth means that it won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4% tolerance band until late-2024. Against that... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Powell testimony confirms higher peak in rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that interest rates are set to rise higher than we previously anticipated. But with most evidence still pointing to economic weakness and markedly lower... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Most of the monetary hit is yet to be felt We think that most – perhaps two thirds – of the drag on activity from tighter monetary policy in advanced economies is still to come through in 2023. So, despite some surprisingly resilient data... 7th March 2023 · 26 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
