UK Economics Weekly The two-sided risks to our rate forecasts Our view is that Bank Rate will rise from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50% and stay there for all of this year before being cut to around 3.00% by the end of next year. But the two-sided risks to our... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to expect economic hit from bank turmoil The Fed will need to wait at least another few weeks for clearer evidence of the impact from the recent banking sector turmoil, but we expect economic weakness will convince officials to move to the... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Keep calm and carry on hiking The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse may tighten lending conditions slightly due to reduced competition and potentially tighter regulation. But we don’t think there will be a significant impact on... 24th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s banks, the ECB and pension reform in France There a plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Europe’s banks. While the renewed sell-off in bank equities on Friday show that it is too soon to sound the all clear, the latest comments... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China... 24th March 2023 · 35 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Stronger data required for more rate hikes The Bank of England followed the Fed’s example by forging ahead today with a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike, taking rates from 4.00% to 4.25%. This could prove to be the last hike of the... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Central banks under the spotlight Next week’s MPC meeting in Egypt, coming at a time of soaring inflation and growing concerns over the commitment to policy reforms, will prove critical to restoring investors’ faith. Policymakers will... 23rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar 2023.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped back by more than expected, to 7.1% y/y, in the first half of March but the further rise in services inflation will continue to concern policymakers at Banxico... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focuses on inflation and raises rates This morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), to 1.50%, was in line with expectations and shows that, like the ECB and Fed, Swiss policymakers have not been distracted from... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise hike in Taiwan, but cuts still likely in late 2023 In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank not done yet The Norges Bank’s 25bp rate hike today was accompanied by new verbal guidance that it is likely to raise rates further in May. Together with the new, higher interest rate forecast, this supports our... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: one more hike left in the tightening cycle The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (March 2023) 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
