Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain on hold The further rise in the unemployment rate in July and signs that the housing market is cooling again are both reasons to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly LatAm central banks kick off easing cycles with a bang The decisions in the past week by central banks in both Chile and Brazil to cut interest rates confirm that Latin America remains at the front of the pack in this global monetary cycle. We think Peru... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peak does not mean pivot There are two key points to remember as we near the end of the hiking phase of the interest rate cycle and get close to the holding phase. First, a peak in interest rates does not mean that a pivot to... 4th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP in no rush to cut, Indonesia’s dodgy GDP data Headline inflation in the Philippines fell sharply last month, but with the core rate still elevated and worries about the inflationary impact of El Niño rising, the central bank (BSP) is in no rush... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government capex boom, RBI to dial up hawkishness All eyes will be on the RBI's policy decision on Thursday, which has become less of a formality given the surge in food prices. We still think that the central bank will keep the repo rate on hold at... 4th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA unlikely to lift rates any higher With the Reserve Bank of Australia having left its cash rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings, we think its tightening cycle is at an end. Indeed, the RBA appears increasingly concerned that... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ in fighting retreat from yield control 10-year government bond yields have steadily risen since the BoJ effectively raised the yield ceiling from 0.5% to 1.0% last Friday and could test the new ceiling by year-end. If that happens, we... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the early EM interest rate cutters The key points that stand out from the recent moves by central banks in Brazil, Chile and Hungary to cut interest rates are, first, how quickly policymakers have shifted from hawkish to dovish and... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Close to the summit, but rates to stay at the peak for a year Today’s 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates from 5.00% to 5.25% may be followed by another hike in September to a peak of 5.50%. But rates appear close to the summit. Even so, the Bank’s new... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023) 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
