Asia Economics Update Philippines: rate cuts unlikely before 2024 The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting and, although the economy weakened markedly in Q2 and inflation is nearly back to target... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Only one more Norges Bank hike to come Norges Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle. After today’s 25bp hike, taking the deposit rate to 4%, we expect one final 25bp increase in September. We have then pencilled in a faster... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (August 2023) Norges Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle. After today’s 25bp hike, taking the deposit rate to 4%, we expect one final 25bp increase in September. We have then pencilled in a faster... 17th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Growth in the real economy appears to be gathering momentum, but with survey-based indicators still weak and credit conditions continuing to tighten, we expect that rebound to be short-lived. In... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) CPI inflation fell to a 17-month low of 6.8% in July, as the effects of the lower utility price cap kicked in. But with services price inflation rising from 7.2% to 7.4% (Bank of England forecast 7.3%... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession across the second half of the year. But with... 16th August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals extended pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold, as was widely expected. However, the minutes of today’s meeting were unambiguously on the hawkish side, with the Committee indicating the need to... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: macro stability risks now crystalising The decision by Russia’s central bank to increase its policy rate by 350bp, to 12.00%, at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the challenges that policymakers are now facing to maintain... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Higher food prices pose risk to disinflation process Inflation across Emerging Asia should continue to decline over the coming months. However, the risks are to the upside amid uncertainty over the outlook for food prices. And while we are sticking with... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Interest rate-sensitive activity still holding up Interest rate-sensitive activity in advanced economies has fallen, but is still holding up rather well given how much interest rates have risen. This is partly due to the rebound in auto sales and... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Aug.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the second time in three months, amid growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s economy. A larger-than-usual MLF cut had hinted at a... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
