Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs weather the global banking storm Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global banking system have been limited. There don’t appear to be signs of strain in EM banks themselves, outflows of capital have been small and, in general... 29th March 2023 · 9 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will slow the pace of tightening With the latest economic data coming in weaker than it had anticipated, the RBNZ will likely opt for a smaller 25bp hike to the official cash rate (OCR) at its upcoming meeting on April 5th. We expect... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
RBA Watch April pause will be followed by final hike in May The RBA has signalled a pause in its tightening cycle at next week’s meeting and the economic data on balance suggest that it will follow through. However, we still expect it to hike rates one more... 29th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Are EMs also at risk from bank turmoil? 6th April 2023, 3:00PM BST Recent turmoil in the banking sector may have been a US and European story, but there are potentially important angles for Emerging Market investors.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb.) The tepid rise in retail sales in February all but locks in a contraction in sales volumes in Q1. We think that a stronger rise in services spending will help keep private consumption buoyant this... 28th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Is the door closing for fiscal loosening in the Gulf? One of the main channels through which the Gulf countries are exposed to worries about the health of the global banking system in through energy markets, with the price of Brent crude falling by 13%... 24th March 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolivia’s FX crunch, Argentina’s debt shenanigans Bolivia's balance of payments strains intensified this week and, while a sovereign default doesn't appear to be imminent, the country's current policy setting looks unsustainable. Meanwhile, a decree... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest DMs avoided recession in Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that not only did advanced economies avoid recession in Q1, but the outlook for activity has improved as well. However, we still think the hit from higher interest... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
