UK Economics Update Growth upgrade suggests UK no longer such a laggard The news that the UK economy may now be 1.5% bigger than its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic size, rather than 0.2% smaller, suggests the economy has been much stronger than we previously thought. But with the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to pause amid rising recession risks The surprise second-quarter contraction in GDP was partly due to the wildfires but, even without that damage, growth would have been very weak. With the August CFIB Business Barometer showing further... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE to talk up high for long This week the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said that he didn’t think interest rates will rise much further from 5.25% now but that rates are likely to stay high for a long time. We’re... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A major step-up in support Stimulus efforts are finally gaining momentum. Yesterday, regulators announced measures to support households and shore up the property sector, including looser downpayment requirements and reductions... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s policy shift: promising start, but a lot more to do Turkey’s policy shift has ticked a lot of the right boxes so far and the central bank’s large rate hike this month will go a long way to rebuilding confidence among investors. But there are still... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August) The small upside surprise to euro-zone headline inflation in August was entirely due to energy, while the core rate edged down. We don’t think these data will tip the balance of opinion at the ECB... 31st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug. Flash Est.) The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch No need for Bank to hike again Inflation has surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts but, given signs of slower GDP growth and looser labour market conditions, the Bank should be happy keeping interest rates on... 30th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Dollarisation not a silver bullet for Argentina History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this... 30th August 2023 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Emerging Asia Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and... 30th August 2023 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will cut interest rates by early-2024 All of the key indicators released over the past month support our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now done hiking interest rates. With inflation now slowing rapidly and the economy set to... 30th August 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market has normalised The July JOLTS data cast further doubt on the idea that the Fed will need to keep rates high for longer. With the job quits rate now below its pre-pandemic peak and the job openings rate also rapidly... 29th August 2023 · 2 mins read
