India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher oil prices not the biggest threat to EM inflation The rise in oil prices, and upwards revision to our 2024 oil price forecast, will have only a small impact on EM inflation and won’t stop it from falling further. The much bigger upside risks to our... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant... 18th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly China EV investigation, ECB done with hikes The European Commission’s decision to launch an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies underlines policymakers’ resolve to slow China’s rapid ascent in the market. But any measures taken are unlikely... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, at today’s meeting and with the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation pressures to keep building, we think further... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sept. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggests the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3. We expect it to shrink further in Q4... 15th September 2023 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP on a knife edge, Pakistan inflation worries The scheduled highlights of the coming week are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. While Indonesia and Taiwan are very likely to leave policy settings unchanged, the... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank has one more hike to go We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.25%, and signal that its tightening cycle is over. It is then likely to will wait until around the... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike policy rate in January Following hawkish comments by BoJ Governor Ueda, we now expect the Bank to lift its policy rate for the first time in sixteen years in January. The Bank could call time on Yield Curve Control at the... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to follow ECB lead next week The Riksbank looks all but certain to follow the ECB’s example and raise its key policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%. However, while that could mark the end of its tightening cycle, on balance we... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
