Europe Economics Update Lending data point to recession The latest euro-zone money and credit data show that tighter ECB policy is continuing to weigh on households’ and firms’ borrowing, as well as influencing what they do with their savings. The weakness... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 23) With Australia’s disinflationary process stalling, there’s a growing risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will resume rate hikes in Q4. 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB entering the second phase of the easing cycle The Hungarian central bank (MNB) delivered another 100bp interest rate cut (to 13.00%) and simplified its monetary policy toolkit at today’s meeting, paving the way for the second phase of the easing... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to... 26th September 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 & Copom Minutes (September 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 5.0% y/y in the first half of September, taken together with the more cautious tone of the minutes to last week’s central bank meeting, supports our view that the... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the top of its interest rate corridor, by 250bp, today is a first step in what is likely to be a shift in the monetary policy framework that will... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower money growth shows higher rates are working The sharp slowdown in broad money growth since late last year suggests that higher interest rates are working by reducing households’ and firms’ demand for borrowing, which should lead to softer... 26th September 2023 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will deliver another hawkish hold Although economic activity has held up reasonably well thus far, we still think it will see another leg down. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our view that the RBNZ won’t lift rates any higher. That... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth prospects for 2024 improving After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 25th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024 GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on... 25th September 2023 · 34 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly “Higher for longer” more likely than another rate hike Given clearer signs of economic weakness in recent weeks, we think the surprise increase in underlying inflation pressures in August means the Bank of Canada is more likely to keep interest rates at... 25th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update End of Yield Curve Control won’t spell fiscal disaster The abandonment of Yield Curve Control would probably prompt the Bank of Japan to reduce its bloated holdings of government bonds, which could push up long-term bond yields. However, there are good... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s subsidy and new MPC, South Africa fiscal fear The recent pick-up in oil prices will provide welcome hard currency income for Nigeria. But, with local fuel prices being kept stable, high oil prices and a weak naira also signal the return of the... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s services inflation, forecast changes Even though Brazil's central bank gave a clear signal this week that it will cut interest rates in 50bp steps, there are still suggestions that easing core inflation might prompt the central bank to... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs consistent with interest rate peaks The September Flash PMIs add to evidence that economic activity in the US and Europe is weakening. This supports our view that the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England have finished hiking interest rates. 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
