Capital Daily Final Fed hike unlikely to preclude a further rally in Treasuries The FOMC looks set to shrug off the latest banking sector turmoil and deliver another, probably final, 25bp rate hike today. But we think it will turn to rate cuts soon, and cut further than is... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB: hawks rear their heads, but Q3 rate cut in play The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Surprise hike, but further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate (OPR) today by 25bps (to 3.0%), citing the resilient economy as grounds to “further normalise the degree of monetary... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2023) 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tightening cycle over but rate cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the coming months... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily YCC set to survive for a while yet: what next for JGBs and the yen With Yield Curve Control set to stay in place at least for the rest of this year, we now expect the yield of 10-year JGBs to settle close to the 50bp tolerance band ceiling. But given we predict... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Q1 GDP growth muted; Q2 will be worse Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining vacancies should soothe Bank’s nerves The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MPR shining light on monetary policy thinking in SA The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s peso woes, Paraguay’s China-Taiwan vote The measures undertaken by Argentina's government to stem the run on the peso over the past couple of weeks might provide some temporary relief, but with inflation and the fiscal position continuing... 28th April 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE should be talking tough on interest rates not wages The Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, came under fire this week for comments that implied businesses should stop raising their prices and workers should stop asking for pay increases . But... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
