Europe Economics Update A coin toss decision for the SNB On balance, we think the SNB will look through the recent low inflation and hike rates by 25bp one last time to 2.00%, given policymakers’ previous hawkish commentary. But with the economy stagnating... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update End of ECB tightening cycle Today’s 25bp rate hike by the ECB probably brings its tightening cycle to an end. Given our view that underlying inflation will ease only gradually even though the euro-zone is heading for a recession... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PBOC cuts reserve requirements The People’s Bank has just announced a cut to bank reserve requirements. With private sector credit demand still weak, this is a gesture rather than a meaningful support measure. Substantial rate cuts... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news... 14th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economic Outlook Food price inflation the key threat to policy outlook India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2... 13th September 2023 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the ECB’s operational review When the ECB Governing Council announces the results of its operational review later this year, it is likely to say it will continue to use the deposit rate as its key policy tool. We also expect the... 12th September 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (August 2023) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.6% y/y in August won’t prevent the central bank from delivering another 50bp cut, to 12.75% when it meets later this month. But with core services inflation, which... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC rate cuts: Go big or go home The quantitative tools that the PBOC relied on to pump up credit growth during previous downturns have become ineffective due to weak demand. That leaves interest rates as the main avenue for monetary... 11th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect a rally in government bonds in the US and Europe Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of... 8th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in oil prices not yet a big inflation risk The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next... 8th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
