Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2024) January’s euro-zone inflation data were a little stronger than we had expected after the data for Germany and France were released yesterday. While the euro-zone’s headline and core inflation rates... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
RBA Watch A dovish pivot is on the horizon We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly... 31st January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2023) 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in January, but our regional measure rose for the fourth consecutive month and points to... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus Inflation: Mission accomplished? We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a... 29th January 2024 · 20 mins read
Africa Data Response Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards... 29th January 2024 · 2 mins read
