Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Faltering economy will contribute to Fed pivot The 2.6% annualised rise in third quarter GDP was a lot worse than it looked, with growth in underlying demand grinding to a near-halt. At the same time, there are mounting signs that economic... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still a long way from a pivot This week’s data releases have done nothing to change our key calls on the euro-zone economy: that it is heading for a deeper recession and higher inflation than most expect, and that the ECB will be... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (October) Renewed inflation shockers in Germany, France and Italy in October pour cold water on expectations that the ECB’s softer tone on rate hikes yesterday will pave the way for a “pivot”. We continue to... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls, Vietnam playing catch up We published our latest Emerging Asia Economic Outlook earlier this week, containing new forecasts for GDP, inflation and monetary policy. In this Weekly, we outline three key non-consensus calls from... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Public support will push inflation below 2% again The Tokyo CPI’s strength in October has prompted us to lift our forecast for the peak in underlying inflation from 2.5% to 3.0%. However, government support measures announced today mean that headline... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Don’t expect fireworks at “additional” MPC meeting Unlike previous "emergency" meetings in response to big financial market moves or inflation shocks, the "additional" MPC meeting announced for next week is a bureaucratic decision since the RBI is... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will stick to 25bp hike One reason why investors were caught off guard by the further acceleration in trimmed mean CPI last quarter was that the ABS' Monthly CPI Indicator hasn't been as reliable as we'd like it to be. That... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Window for policy tightening is closing rapidly The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between incomes and wages. 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Tokyo CPI (Sep. 22) The unemployment rate rose slightly in September on the back of a large jump in the labour force but a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will tighten again... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch BoE to deliver a more “forceful” interest rate hike The further strengthening in domestic inflationary pressures and exceptional tightness in the labour market suggests there is a strong case for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to opt for an... 27th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Risks skewed towards another 50bp hike The Norges Bank signalled in September that it intended to slow the pace of tightening, implying that it would hike by 25bp at the meeting next week. But with inflation data since then again coming in... 27th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set stage for sluggish growth EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
