Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Peak rates approaching in Norway, Switzerland The Norges Bank shifted to a slower pace of tightening this week, and the latest data on the housing market suggest that there are downside risks to our forecast for the policy rate to hit 3% and stay... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s dovish tilt It may seem odd that we are still forecasting interest rates to rise from 3.00% to 5.00% when the Bank of England said this week that it expects rates to peak between 3.00% and 4.00%. But what happens... 4th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Will October CPI justify more hawkish noises from the Fed? 1668092400 Our US Economics team held a briefing shortly after the October data release, in which they answered client questions and addressed key issues around what was happening at the Fed and Congress, inc
UK Economics Update Joining the 75bps club, but strong signal rates won’t rise to 5.25% Although the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates today by 75 basis points, from 2.25% to a 14-year high of 3.00%, it sent the strongest signal yet that it thinks rates won’t need to rise... 3rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI tightening will continue on schedule The RBI’s out-of-cycle meeting today concluded with no decision on interest rates. That’s no surprise – it was called for administrative reasons, rather than as a response to changing economic... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The decline in both core and headline inflation in October supports our view that Switzerland has passed peak inflation. We expect further falls in the coming months which will allow the SNB to raise... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Turkey rose to 85.5% y/y in October due to a broad-based strengthening of price pressures. Even so, the central bank will remain under pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What a change in tack by the Fed could mean for markets We think an eventual Fed “pivot” will push down long-term Treasury yields, although it may not help the stock market much nor prevent a renewed US dollar rally. 2nd November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Focus Broad-based decline in core inflation coming soon Despite the unanticipated strength in recent months, there are still good reasons to expect core inflation to fall markedly next year. That moderation will not require a deep recession and/or... 2nd November 2022 · 18 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The further fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in October, from 50.9, illustrates that global economic weakness and the earlier surge in the dollar are catching up with the factory sector... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Flash HICP (October) The increase in euro-zone GDP in Q3 does not alter our view that the euro-zone is on the cusp of a recession. But with inflation having jumped to well over 10%, the ECB will prioritise price stability... 31st October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
