Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Africa Economics Update SARB to keep taming “inflation monster” for a while Today’s decision in South Africa to raise the benchmark rate by 75bp, to 7.00%, signalled that policymakers remain in inflation-fighting mode and the tightening cycle has further to run. That said... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 8.1% y/y, in the first two weeks of November was driven by easing non-core price pressures. But core inflation picked up, which will strengthen... 24th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update When will EM central banks turn to interest rate cuts? Monetary tightening cycles in EMs are advanced relative to DMs, and are now drawing to a close in many countries. Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over the coming months, but... 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued downturn and easing inflation November’s flash PMIs were a mixed bag, with unexpected increases in Europe and a sharp fall in the US. However, the headline indices are now at levels consistent with falling activity in all major... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation is nearing its peak We think that headline inflation in the euro-zone is nearing its peak and will begin to fall quite sharply early next year. But the core rate will probably peak a little later and decline more slowly. 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation has passed the peak Having surged for the best part of two years, EM inflation appears to have passed the peak in this cycle. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation dropped from 7.8% y/y in September to 7.4% y/y in... 23rd November 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up unexpectedly in October, to 7.6% y/y, and the jump in core inflation will be a particular worry for policymakers. Another 75bp hike in the repo rate... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, revised estimate) Revised GDP data confirm that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter. However, we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global growth, high inflation and tighter... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What will the Bank make of the October CPI data? Although the annual rates of core inflation increased in October, we suspect the Bank of Canada will point to the declines in the 3-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median to justify... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN shifting in less hawkish direction The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 16.50%, today, and MPC members appear to be itching to take their foot off the monetary policy brakes. But we suspect that the... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
