Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s minimum wage hike and FX mortgage ruling The Polish government’s proposal this week to increase the national minimum wage by another eye-watering 20% or so in 2024 means that wage and inflation pressures could prove even more sticky than we... 16th June 2023 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker data likely to limit Fed to one more rate hike The Fed put its rate hiking cycle on pause this week but, in a hawkish shift, its new projections showed the median fed funds rate rising to 5.6% by year-end, which is consistent with 50bp of... 16th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish ECB, weak economy The ECB’s messaging this week was hawkish and suggests that the risks are skewed towards the ECB’s deposit rate rising above our forecast to a peak of 3.75%. Recent data support the Bank’s view that... 16th June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q3 Outlook, inflation plunge, policy pivot? The overarching message from our Q3 India Outlook is that policy rate cuts will soon come on to the agenda as the economy enters a mild slowdown and inflation settles at comfortable rates over the... 16th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation falling but SNB set to hike rates further Policymakers are likely to raise the policy rate by 50bp to 2% next Thursday, despite inflation falling sharply this year. And SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s view that Switzerland’s neutral interest... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Another look at the underperformance of Gilts Although we no longer expect Gilts to outperform in local-currency terms, we do think they’re set to hold up better against Treasuries and Bunds over the rest of this year than they have done lately. 15th June 2023 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Rates heading to 5.25% The recent persistence of inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will proceed with another 25 basis point (bps) rise in Bank Rate from 4.50% to 4.75% next Thursday and ultimately raise... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose a touch to 2.8% y/y in May, as an acceleration in non-food inflation more than offset the further slowdown in food inflation. We think the headline rate will resume... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Inflation falling, but core rates too sticky for comfort While headline CPI prints have been encouraging in recent months, policymakers will be nervous about the stickiness of core inflation. Average headline inflation in major advanced economies had... 14th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Headline inflation fell back into single digit territory in May, but the underlying rate came down a bit less than anticipated. This suggests there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riksbank... 14th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The BoE's June meeting – Policy rates, mortgage rates and the macro outlook 1687442400 With inflation still running hot, the Bank of England has little choice to keep raising interest rates.
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation fell to a more than two-year low of 4.0% in May, thanks to favourable base effects and another sharp drop back in energy prices last month but, with core price inflation still... 13th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Home-grown and external headwinds to slow growth Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
