Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand set to weigh on industry further The latest PMIs suggest that not only did global manufacturing activity contract at the end of Q2, but the outlook for the manufacturing sector also seems to have deteriorated further. At least the... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) The fall in inflation in June was smaller than the SNB had expected and SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan’s comments after the meeting two weeks ago suggest a further hike in the policy rate in September is... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q2 2023) Today’s Tankan survey showed a turnaround for the flagging manufacturing sector, while the services sector has become even more bullish. And the rise in business condition readings across all... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s survey results unlikely to prevent another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys showed a broad decline in inflation expectations and are consistent with a renewed slowdown in GDP growth. The Bank could use those... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumption and core inflation losing momentum The apparent weakness of consumption growth and slowdown in core inflation in the second quarter leave us a bit more confident in our view that the Fed’s next rate hike will prove to be the last. 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut, Argentina shifting towards the centre? The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting made clear that the easing cycle will kick off in August, but they also confirmed our long held view that the easing cycle will be gradual –... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 30th June 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya restarts tightening, case for a hold in SA builds Kenya’s central bank hiked interest rates by 100bp, to 10.50%, at an unscheduled meeting this week. The move was pinned on an increase in inflation in May, but more than anything it seems to be a... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Income & Spending (May) The May income & spending data appear to confirm that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the second quarter, while also providing encouraging signs that core inflation is gradually easing. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Higher ECB rate forecast, Riksbank eyes stronger SEK We are nudging up our peak ECB rate forecast in light of communications from ECB officials at Sintra and the latest economic data. We now see 25bp rate hikes in both July and September, taking the... 30th June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June) June’s inflation data won’t shift the dial at the ECB. While the headline rate is on a steep downward trend, services inflation shows no sign of falling. 30th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do as economy is holding up Although CPI data released this week showed a sharp slowdown in headline inflation, it’s clear that underlying price pressures remain strong. What’s more, yesterday’s retail sales data revealed an... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
