Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (May 2023) Nationwide inflation played out largely in line with the timelier Tokyo CPI data in May. Headline inflation fell largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom lines up September rate cut The somewhat cautious tone of the statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%) will disappoint those hoping for an interest rate cut... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the UK’s inflation mess Yet another upside surprise to UK inflation today has put the spotlight squarely back on Gilts and sterling, both of which have come under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England policy... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Turning a corner, but a difficult road ahead Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Stagflation to drag on, rates near peak We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by... 21st June 2023 · 32 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rates will be kept at 8.25% at next... 21st June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2023) The news that CPI inflation stayed at 8.7% in April (consensus 8.4%, BoE 8.3%) and that core CPI inflation rose again, from 6.8% to a new 31-year high of 7.1% (consensus 6.8%), will have been seen in... 21st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank paves the way for July rate cut The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting have reinforced our view that the easing cycle will commence in July. We... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Jun 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 20th June 2023 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Hi-tech construction boom not reflected in output The investment boom in new hi-tech manufacturing plants is unprecedented, but that boom still hasn’t fed through into higher output or employment in hi-tech manufacturing and investment in IT... 20th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive tightening will weigh on activity With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a peak of 4.85% by September, whereas we suspect that the RBNZ is done tightening. Extremely tight monetary policy... 20th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stagflation nation As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation and slower economic growth than elsewhere is largely due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Brexit, we think the UK will probably look like the... 19th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB to cut soon? Chile’s FX reserves Expectations for interest rate cuts in Brazil have grown in light of recent developments, but, for now, we’re sticking with our view that Copom will hold off on lowering interest rates until November... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
