UK Data Response Housing downturn another blow for consumer spending The recent renewed falls in house prices have revived the long-standing debate about the effect of the housing market on consumer spending. We stand by our long-held view that there is a strong link... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing downturn another blow for consumer spending The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Nov.) & Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The rise in consumer confidence in November is not consistent with a sustained acceleration in consumption growth at a time when income growth is weak, the unemployment rate is high and a double dip... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Oct.) The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. The fact that house prices are still overvalued... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q3) & New Home Sales (Oct.) The US economy once again has to contend with a faltering housing market, in which both prices and activity are falling. Thankfully, this second downward leg should be shorter and less severe than the... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How much bigger will the private rented sector get? Over the next three to five years, we think that the most likely scenario is that the private rented sector (PRS) continues to expand. By 2015, it is plausible that 16% or even 17% of households will... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.) This morning’s marginal rise in the total number of mortgages approved in October is not particularly encouraging, given that approvals for house purchase are still falling. With both lenders and... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about the latest drop in house-building? The fall in dwelling starts in Q3 may well be a sign that the recovery in house-building has run out of steam. If so, it raises questions about the durability of the wider economic recovery and, on... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Housing Starts (Oct.) October's consumer price inflation figures support the recent argument made by several Fed officials, that they would have launched QE2 even if the Fed's mandate was to target price stability alone... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will detached prices outperform because of tight credit? Detached house prices will prove to be more resilient than other types of residential property in the next two to three years. Higher earners, who disproportionately demand this most expensive type of... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CLG House Prices (Sep) The second fall in the government’s measure of house prices in almost a year and a half suggests that the recent weakness picked up by the more timely indices is finally showing through in house... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q3) Lending to the buy-to-let sector noticeably outperformed the wider market in the third quarter. But there is reason to expect lending to the sector to weaken soon. 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q3) The continued fall in the numbers of arrears and possessions in the third quarter is encouraging. But figures showing an increase in possession orders being sought and awarded may mean that the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade, Property (Oct.) China’s trade surplus has continued to widen, despite a recent run of strength in imports. The stage is set for a tense G20 summit. 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey (Oct) The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
