US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax no panacea Even if we shared the common view that China’s property market is in a bubble, the tax that seems likely to be introduced soon on residential property would not be a solution. 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Dec/Nov) Activity and house prices both softened in December. Although the drop in sales instructions was particularly striking, it does not necessarily follow that supply shortages will underpin house prices... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Struggling tenants will limit growth in average rents If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates rebound The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is consumption still as sensitive to house prices? The second downward leg in house prices, which began last year, is likely to have a smaller impact on consumer spending than the initial plunge both in proportionate and absolute terms. Nonetheless... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that in both the housing and commercial property markets lenders have continued slowly to improve the volume of credit that is available, if not its terms... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Fewer willing sellers won't prevent prices from falling There have been tentative signs that prospective vendors are being deterred from bringing their properties to the market by renewed price falls. But even if supply contracts further, a combination of... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The recent improvement in economic conditions has done little to support housing demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in December remaining close to historically depressed levels. With... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The Bank of England’s measure of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for first time in seven months in November. However, mortgage lending remains incredibly low by historical standards. This... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The decline in mortgage market activity continued in November. Approvals for house purchase dropped to their lowest level for twenty months. With lenders’ funding issues set to persist, if not... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The FSA's responsible lending proposals; "a step too far"? Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is now a good time to buy residential property as an inflation hedge? Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q3) Today’s FSA lending data confirm that mortgage lending criteria remained very tight in the third quarter. And while arrears and possessions improved as expected, the full impact of public sector job... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Nov/Oct) Uncertainty stemming from the impact of the public sector spending cuts on the labour market, combined with the continued restrictions on mortgage supply, is taking its toll on the housing market. Two... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
