US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will central London property be immune from further falls? In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus House prices likely to fall for several years We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals drop to a 21-month low There was little, if any, positive news from the housing market this month. With confidence in the recovery on the wane, mortgage credit conditions tight and houses still overvalued, we find it hard... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House prices still have further to fall House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) & Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.) The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is the housing market heading for a double-dip? Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concern Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by just 1.1 million, reversing only a small number of the 8.3 million jobs lost during the recession. What makes the labour market recovery even... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The continued decline in mortgage activity in December capped off a weak year for lending to the housing market. The prospect of sluggish economic growth and subdued demand means that 2011 is unlikely... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Nov.) The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5%... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
