US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is mortgage affordability close to an all-time high? We do not agree with research published recently in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that mortgage affordability is at near-record levels. By looking at interest payments only, the Lombard Street... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What effect would a rise in Bank Rate have on mortgage interest rates? In principle, lenders appear to have scope to absorb any rise in Bank Rate within their already high margins. Yet lenders are now raising the cost of some mortgages in response to higher swap rates... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordability The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Prices still sliding The renewed downward trend in house prices continued towards the end of last year, with prices on the 20-City Case-Shiller index falling for the fifth month in a row in November. (See Chart below.)... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q4) Buy-to-let (BTL) lending ended 2010 on a comparatively strong note. But the data were not quite as strong as they seem at first sight. 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4) While the number of arrears and possessions cases fell in the fourth quarter, the ongoing squeeze on household incomes from tax rises and public spending cuts, as well as the likelihood of a further... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will central London property be immune from further falls? In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus House prices likely to fall for several years We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals drop to a 21-month low There was little, if any, positive news from the housing market this month. With confidence in the recovery on the wane, mortgage credit conditions tight and houses still overvalued, we find it hard... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus House prices still have further to fall House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) & Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.) The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
