UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) & Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.) The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax falls short of (low) expectations The property tax plans that were announced yesterday look more like token measures than serious attempts to dampen property market speculation or provide local governments with a secure source of... 28th January 2011 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is the housing market heading for a double-dip? Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Poor quality of new jobs is an additional concern Over the past year, payroll employment has increased by just 1.1 million, reversing only a small number of the 8.3 million jobs lost during the recession. What makes the labour market recovery even... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The continued decline in mortgage activity in December capped off a weak year for lending to the housing market. The prospect of sluggish economic growth and subdued demand means that 2011 is unlikely... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Nov.) The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5%... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property tax no panacea Even if we shared the common view that China’s property market is in a bubble, the tax that seems likely to be introduced soon on residential property would not be a solution. 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Dec/Nov) Activity and house prices both softened in December. Although the drop in sales instructions was particularly striking, it does not necessarily follow that supply shortages will underpin house prices... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Struggling tenants will limit growth in average rents If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates rebound The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
