US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive coastal metros and... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) A small fall in mortgage rates over the second half of May failed to arrest a downward trend in mortgage demand, with applications for home purchase ending the month at a two-year low. And with that... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) There was another slowdown in the annual rate of house price inflation in May according to the Nationwide. That was in line with our expectation of sustained slowdown through the rest of the year... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) The monthly decline in house prices in May is the start of a significant housing downturn as the RBA’s hiking cycle continues. There’s a risk that this prompts the RBA to end its hiking cycle early... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Biggest quarterly drop in property valuations on record There was a huge deterioration in property valuations in Q1, reflecting the sharp rises in alternative asset yields recorded since the start of the year. The size of those yield rises mostly dwarfed... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) House prices surged in March, with Case-Shiller reporting record gains on both a monthly and annual basis. That reflects the jump in housing demand seen over the turn of the year, when desperate... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rent growth to slow, but quality gap could arise Both our view and that of the IPF Consensus is that prime office rental growth will slow as hybrid working shifts take their toll. However, we also think it is likely that a quality gap will emerge... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Net lending to property rose sharply in April, after three consecutive months of easing. But the latest jump is most likely a once-off as we expect that credit demand will be dented by rising interest... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (May.) The drop in mortgage approvals in April provided early evidence that interest rate increases are starting to hurt activity. As we expect the rises in both policy and mortgage rates to continue apace... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand house prices to fall by 20% House prices in New Zealand are tumbling and all signs point to a further deterioration in the months ahead. On that basis, we are revising up our forecast for the peak to trough decline in prices... 30th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey indicates that the outlook for this year is stronger than expected three months ago, though after 2022 forecasts were more pessimistic. Our view remains more downbeat... 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the house price consensus still so bullish? The consensus among professional forecasters is that house price growth will slow but remain positive over the coming years, as a robust jobs market prevents forced sales. But even in the absence of... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment rental growth will cool rapidly Rental growth in NYC reached 22% y/y in Q1 2022, one of the fastest rates in the country. But we expect growth to cool rapidly from here and underperform other cities. The past surge in rents largely... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales dropped sharply to a two-year low in April. But while rising mortgage rates are weighing on sales, the drop looks large given the fall in mortgage applications seen so far and may be... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Metro upturn continues, but capital growth set to slow The metro level data confirmed another strong quarter for commercial real estate in Q1, though with the usual wide range of performance across sectors and cities. For offices, rents in the larger... 24th May 2022 · 6 mins read
