US Commercial Property Update Apartment completions likely to stay strong until 2025 We continue to expect historic highs for apartment completions in 2023-24 even though there are signs some will be deferred. This also means that, although new permits have dropped back amid softer... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The slowdown in rent growth in the first half of this year is likely to persist... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our revised yield model suggests the peak is close Property yields have risen less sharply this year, but there remains considerable uncertainty about where they will peak. We returned to our yield model for guidance and, while a re-specified equation... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears edge higher as BTL mortgage rates hit 6% Mortgage arrears were still low in Q2, but the number of Buy-to-Let (BTL) mortgages in early arrears increased at an alarming pace. We suspect that will continue in Q3. A growing number of landlords... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Country Garden is Evergrande-lite but worse-timed Financial problems at Country Garden, once considered among China’s strongest developers, will further undermine confidence among homebuyers and creditors, exacerbating the property downturn. The... 16th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How remote work could impact US city revenues On the back of the remote work revolution, US downtowns have seen reduced office-led footfall and rising crime rates. Cities will need to be proactive to drive conversion to alternative use and to... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Shopping centre rental recovery peters out In contrast to shops and retail warehouses, the nascent recovery in shopping centre rents has already faded. The shift to remote work and greater exposure to online competition has led to relatively... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (July) July saw the amount of outstanding debt secured against real estate rise (albeit marginally) after a sharp drop in June, driven by a strong rebound in residential lending. Across the commercial real... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How many global risks lie in China's Country Garden The immediate global economic and market fallout from troubles at Chinese property developer Country Garden seems likely to be limited. Foreign exposure to China’s property sector has fallen sharply... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update The mixed recession signals from US HY bonds & CMBS The stark and unusual contrast between falling credit spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds and rising ones of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US suggests... 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'? The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
