Europe Commercial Property Update Better transparency provides little respite for yields While encouraging for the property risk premium, better transparency across Europe is unlikely to provide much support for property yields given the deterioration in the economic and interest rate... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Allowing for seasonal swings, house prices in July fell as much as they did at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn. With soaring mortgage rates weighing on affordability, prices will continue to fall... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply limits threat from rising construction The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowdown in European investment to continue After a strong start to the year, European investment weakened in Q2. And we expect only lacklustre activity over the second half of the year as rises in the cost of debt, tightening credit conditions... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Deteriorating economic outlook hits sentiment We now think that the reduction in consumer real incomes due to high inflation will push the economy into recession this year. But the Bank of England is likely to have to keep on raising interest... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) Lending activity in the commercial property sector surprised on the upside in June, driven by a rise in net lending to standing property investments. But looking ahead, rising interest rates, a... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals slipped back to below 2019 levels in June supporting our view that higher interest rates will cause housing market activity to slump over the next two years. Indeed, further rises... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) The latest RICS survey for the US highlighted the steepest drop in confidence since early 2020, abruptly reversing the building optimism of recent quarters. This adds to the growing evidence that the... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) After briefly recovering in Q1, the latest RICS survey showed that occupier demand dropped back in Q2 as concerns over the economic outlook and cost pressures weighed on activity. Both rental and... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (May/Jun.) Case-Shiller reported a slowdown in month-on-month house price growth in May, adding to the signs that the housing market is cooling rapidly. The annual growth rate dropped below 20% and the sharp... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2022) NCREIF total returns fell back again in Q2, dropping to 3.2% q/q from their end-2021 peak of over 6%, as higher interest rates and weaker growth hit property performance. We expect the remainder of... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Rents to grow at twice their 2010s rate this decade Although less widely reported than the house price boom, rents have been setting records too. The 11% y/y rise in the Zoopla rents index in Q1 was the fastest since the series began in 2006. That... 26th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily Central banks may yet put more upward pressure on bond yields We expect elevated inflation to keep developed market (DM) central banks hiking rates aggressively this year, even as economies slow sharply, in some cases falling into recession. Accordingly, we... 25th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker consumer outlook to delay Spanish retail rally A rebound in tourism will cushion some of the blow to Spanish prime retail demand caused by falling real incomes this year. But once inflation eventually eases, we expect rent growth to outperform... 25th July 2022 · 3 mins read
