US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity contracts even as rates stabilise The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market jitters, demographic decline Homebuyers across China are banding together to pause mortgage payments in response to construction delays on presold apartments. For now these boycotts are small in scale. But they could become more... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2022) The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to slump... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the economy on... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail warehouses to remain aisle of choice Structural changes to how we live, work and shop have supported retail warehouse rents over the last couple of years relative to other retail sub-sectors. We expect this outperformance will continue... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak euro unlikely to push overseas investment higher We doubt the fall in the euro will lead to a material increase in overseas investment this year. Rather, we think investor demand will be underpinned by the euro-zone’s economic and property... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about refinancing risk? The impact of rising mortgage rates and the hit to real incomes from high inflation have given rise to fears of mortgage repayment difficulties when existing borrowers come to remortgage. But the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Fair value analysis suggests our forecasts are on-target The rise in interest rates and bond yields has put property yields back under the microscope. Property valuations are now stretched and a traditional fair value analysis points toward a rise in... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak job prospects limit Warsaw office rental growth As recession fears grow in Europe, we think that weak employment growth, home-working and strong completions will weigh on office rents in Warsaw. This means rental prospects will provide little... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields could rise more quickly than expected Our updated yield model points to a quicker rise in property yields than our forecast suggests. While we still expect the correction to be mild, not least because of the lower share of property debt... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
