Canada Economics Update Spring market brings deep freeze for home sales The steep declines in home sales across Canada’s major cities reinforces our view that a downturn in residential investment will prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates by as much as... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past couple of months, to a 12-year high of 5.37% in the middle of April, is now weighing on mortgage demand. Home purchase applications dropped to their... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Net lending to property eased for a third consecutive month in March, but continued to show growth. We expect increasing economic headwinds and structural changes within some sectors to weigh on... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Unchanged mortgage approvals in March showed that the housing market remained buoyant throughout the first quarter. But the emerging trend of rising mortgage rates on new loans rising will only... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office yields most vulnerable to rising interest rates While the low level of prime industrial yields compared to history leaves the sector vulnerable to rising interest rates, a fair value analysis that incorporates our expectations for rental growth... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates have risen faster than we originally anticipated and we now expect them to peak at 5.6% in mid-2023. That’s below the level of around 6% which we think risks tiggering a housing market... 29th April 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property yields under pressure from higher rates Our new, higher, UK interest rate forecast means we now expect commercial property yields will start to rise by the end of this year, earlier than in our previous profile. 29th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The slowdown in house price inflation in April adds to signs that the housing market is beginning to cool and suggests that the peak in house price inflation is now behind us. We expect house prices... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for growth... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) The latest RICS survey showed that office and retail occupier activity improved significantly in Q1 and that respondents were more positive about the prospects for property over the next 12 months... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yields to rise sooner A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates this year and next mean that we now think euro-zone all-property yields will reach their trough by the end of this year and will come... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based employment. At the... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House prices will fall in 2023 and 2024 Our new, higher, interest rate forecasts mean that we now expect house prices to fall marginally in 2023 and 2024. While there are risks on both sides, our base case is that prices drop by 5% overall... 27th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
