Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it... 23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is... 20th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel-Iran conflict scenarios, looking beyond oil prices Oil prices continued to climb as the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, but the bigger picture is that the rise in gas prices has been just as significant, and agricultural prices will be next in line if... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in... 19th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Iran conflict: the macro, geopolitical and oil market fallout The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions... 16th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel’s war economy at risk from further escalation Israel’s economy has historically been resilient to conflict, but a continued escalation in hostilities with Iran would raise significant downside risks to activity and the public finances. Heightened... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel’s strikes on Iran put the ball in OPEC+’s court From an oil market perspective, the key risk from the latest flare-up in the Middle East is that the nature of retaliatory action disrupts oil supply and trade in the region. OPEC+ will be the key... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
