Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s recovery entering a more challenging phase Israel’s economy has been one of the fastest growing globally since the pandemic but there are a number of headwinds that will weigh on activity over the coming quarters. We expect a period of below... 2nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI stays the course with another 75bp rate hike The Bank of Israel delivered another 75bp interest rate hike to 2.75% today and while the accompanying communications were not particularly hawkish, it’s clear that the tightening cycle is far from... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening with a 75bp hike The Bank of Israel stepped up its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 2.00%, today as it became more concerned about the strength of inflation. Our previously-hawkish view for interest... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q2 2022) The stronger-than-expected 6.8% q/q annualised expansion in Israel GDP in Q2 confirms that the Q1 contraction was just a blip. Economic activity remains strong and alongside the red-hot inflation... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel joins the 50bp rate hike club The Bank of Israel stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 1.25%, as it dropped its commitment to “gradual” interest rate hikes. This suggests that similar moves may... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s tight labour market to push up wages soon Israel’s labour market has tightened significantly in recent months and while there is so far little sign of a burst of wage pressure coming through, this is likely to be in the pipeline and feed... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel steps up tightening The Bank of Israel hiked its policy by a larger-than-expected 40bp today, to 0.75%, and the backdrop of a strong economy, tight labour market and mounting inflation pressures means that we think it... 23rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
