FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI sticks to aggressive tightening, cycle still not over The Bank of Israel (BoI) hiked interest rates by another 50bp, to 4.25%, today and while it continued to point to signs of slower growth, it sounded more concerned about the strength of inflation than... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q4 2022) The surprise acceleration in Israel GDP growth in Q4, to 5.8% q/q annualised, is not as good as it seems at first sight. The strength was largely driven by an unexpected surge in expenditure on... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic risks of Israel’s new government Concerns over democratic backsliding and an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict associated with Israel’s new far-right government won’t necessarily mean that foreign investment into Israel... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s shrinking surplus, Israel’s political risks The focus in the media this week on Russia’s record current account surplus in 2022 misses the huge deterioration in that surplus at the end of the year. We think the balance of payments will be... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI slows the pace of tightening as economy softens The Bank of Israel slowed down the pace of tightening today with a 50bp rate hike, to 3.25%, as it emphasised the tightening delivered so far and the early signs that economic activity is slowing. We... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q3 2022) The slowdown in GDP growth in Israel in Q3, to 2.1% q/q annualised, was in line with expectations as private consumption contracted and net trade exerted a drag. We think Israel’s economy will hold up... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is... 4th November 2022 · 10 mins read
