Latin America Economics Update Brazil central bank remains in dovish mood The decision by Brazil’s central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 7.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement supports our view that they will remain at their current... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexico: trading places We expect the Mexican economy to outperform by recent standards over the next couple of years. By contrast, growth in Brazil – which until now has been the star performer out of Latin America’s two... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to slow amid global headwinds The economies of Latin America will continue to outperform their peers in the developed world over the coming quarters, but growth is set to slow in 2013 and will be lacklustre by the standards of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in search of investment-led growth Data released later this month are likely to show that after having stagnated for much of the past year, Brazil’s economy roared back to life in Q3 on the back of substantial policy stimulus. But... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bank failures reflect previous financial excesses The recent seizure of a handful of small Brazilian banks and a Colombian brokerage underline the extent of financial excesses in parts of the region in recent years. While there may be additional bank... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of the Andes construction boom Increased savings and investment levels have fuelled a surge in construction activity in Latin America’s Andean economies, helping to raise their long-run growth potential. But in a few countries... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: drop in industry a payback for summer gains The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in September is partly a payback from the large monthly increases in output seen in July and August. The bigger picture is that policy stimulus has... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Currency concerns start to resurface The strength of local currencies is once again starting to trouble policymakers across Latin America. But while there has been a tendency to blame exchange rate appreciation on a third round of... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates on hold to 2014 Last night’s decision to cut Brazilian interest rates by 25bps to a new record low of 7.25% probably marks the end of the current easing cycle. But while most forecasters now expect the authorities to... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's housing market: slowing but not stalling The surge in Brazilian property prices seen over the past few years appears to be slowing, but the housing market still looks significantly overvalued – perhaps by as much as 30-50%. In this month’s... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How far has the inflation outlook deteriorated? As things stand, the spike in global food prices since early June is likely to push up annual inflation in Latin America by around 0.5-1.0%-pts over the next six months or so. But while this is likely... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI adds to signs of a turnaround in Brazil The pick-up in September’s manufacturing PMI adds to recent evidence suggesting that policy stimulus is starting to take effect in Brazil. We suspect that the turnaround in the real economy will... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Stimulus starting to take hold in Brazil There are signs that policy stimulus is starting to take hold in Brazil. Retail sales are growing, car sales hit a record high in August and even output in the beleaguered industrial sector has... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil "QE" debate masks deeper policy challenge Claims that large-scale foreign currency purchases have caused the Brazilian Central Bank to unwittingly engage in a form of quantitative easing are wide of the mark. But it does seem that during 2010... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
