Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growth Having stagnated over the second half of 2011, the early signs are that Brazil’s economy grew by around 1% q/q in the first quarter of this year. But while Brazil’s return to growth is clearly good... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Balanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperform While Brazilian GDP growth has outstripped that of Mexico in recent years, it has been very unbalanced. That has left Mexico better placed to weather any external shocks. As a result, we expect Mexico... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Brazil's property boom looks like a bubble There are several reasons why we would have expected to have seen a sharp rise in Brazilian house prices over the past five years. But even so the sheer scale of the recent jump in prices is difficult... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Better PMI won’t prompt ceasefire in Brazil’s “currency war” The manufacturing PMI survey suggests that after a torrid 2011, Brazilian industry stabilised in the first quarter of this year. But in truth the link between the manufacturing PMI and actual output... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets pause for breath The rebound in financial markets across Latin America since the start of the year has lost some momentum in recent weeks. Having rallied by 10% or so in the first two months of this year, most of the... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s “currency war”? Brazil’s so-called “currency war” has lost a little of its momentum in recent days, as the real – like most EM currencies – has weakened. This provides an ideal opportunity to take stock of the recent... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s growth model under the spotlight News that Brazil last year overtook the UK to become the world’s sixth largest economy is further evidence, if any was needed, of the continued rebalancing of global economic power towards the... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Bumps in the road The immediate outlook for Latin America has brightened in recent months as fears of a renewed crisis in the developed world have eased. But even so, while the region is likely to outperform most... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rates heading back to 2009 low The decision by the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts reflects mounting concerns among policymakers about the sustainability of Brazil’s “twin-speed” growth... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil avoids recession but “two-speed” growth is unsustainable Brazil avoided falling into recession in the fourth quarter of last year by the narrowest of margins, thanks to a renewed pick-up in consumer spending. But while there are signs that growth has... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Capital inflows threaten to destabilise Latin America Large capital inflows to Latin America have resumed in recent months. If we are right in expecting the euro-zone crisis to worsen later this year, then risk appetite is likely to deteriorate and lead... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s industrial recovery at threat from resurgent real The tentative recovery in Brazilian industry is already running into headwinds in the form of a resurgent currency. But while the latest set of measures aimed at stemming the rise in the real are... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
